Recalibrating the 'Balanced' List
- jzlevison
- Jun 14
- 4 min read
Updated: Jun 16
Students applying to university hear again and again and again about the importance of building a “balanced” list of choices. It’s rule Number 1 for getting an offer. But consider this fact, regarding the US: the high school graduates of 2025 submitted over 8 million applications to universities via Common App, the US application platform, resulting in a 6% year increase over the previous year. This surge has
produced the latest shift in an already
competitive university admissions landscape, and the latest reason to rethink what constitutes a “balanced” list.
The significance of the 2025 data is that it confirms the Ivies no longer set the standard for ultra-competitive university admissions. While in 2015, they and other East Coast private schools clearly led the pack in selectivity, in this past cycle schools like UCLA, the University of Virginia, and Vanderbilt University delivered equally tough or tougher admissions decisions.
Two factors help explain the new landscape. The first is application inflation, which started in 2020 when many universities and colleges modified their application procedures to help students manage the upheaval of the COVID pandemic. Students responded by trying their luck at more, and more competitive schools, than they might have previously, setting in motion today’s perfect vicious circle: more applications for a steady supply of seats means more competition for them, forcing admissions rates down. Lower admissions rates cause students to doubledown and ensure their options by applying to more schools, driving application numbers up. And the cycle repeats. One in five students this year applied to 10 or more schools, double the rate from five years ago, and uni lists with 12 to 15 schools were common.
To cite a few illustrative results, applications this year to New York University are up 53% and those to the University of Georgia are up 67% since 2020. The University of Michigan received its highest number of applications ever, and applications to the University of Texas at Austin jumped more than 24% year on year. At the other end of the cycle, acceptances dropped by just over 4% at Boston University and just under 4% at the University of Notre Dame since 2022, and numerous schools posted admissions rates in the single digits. One of the big stories this cycle is Vanderbilt University, which admitted 1,411 of 43,322 regular decision applicants, or 3.3%. (Early vs. regular deadlines are another factor that warrants a whole separate post!)
A second factor is the increasing selectivity of specific university majors, which accounts for some of the Ivy League admissions stats of non-Ivy League schools. Numerous public universities, for example, offer highly sought-after majors in Business, Computer Science, and Engineering, whose admit rates can be vanishingly low. UCLA and the University of Washington, for example accepted 3% of applicants this cycle to their Computer Science majors. Georgia Tech’s Computer Science program posted admit rates below 10%, and admissions to some majors at the University of Texas at Austin's Business and Engineering schools were also in the single digits. Admissions to some majors at USC and the University of Virginia, to name just two schools, are as competitive and as unpredictable as Harvard, Columbia, and Georgetown once were.
There is always an “on the other hand” in university admissions, and in the case of international students there are several. First, US colleges and universities assess international applicants separately and differently from domestic ones. For example, the eye-popping Vanderbilt stat cited above obscures a 15.2% admit rate for international students. Secondly, international students may benefit from the looming “demographic cliff” that is shrinking the population of US teenagers, since they can help universities fill their classes as domestic numbers decline. Also, keep in mind that international students often excel precisely in the majors that are among the most competitive at US colleges and universities; over half enroll in STEM fields. The key is to be strategic when building the university list.
What does a balanced list look like now? It’s all about managing risk in an unpredictable landscape. Accordingly, students should take care when considering a school “safe,” a label that many guidance counsellors are no longer comfortable using. Judge any Ivy, or Ivy-wannabe, or school with a single-digit admit rate for a desired major a wild card, not just a reach. And bulk up the middle with strong matches. Research must be deeper to discern priorities in specific departments and majors, and admissions trends for in-state, out-of-state, and international students. A total of ten targeted schools that are a “fit” is a good number; applying to more than 12 risks wasting precious time and energy during a busy senior year. Students are strongly advised to be open-minded and willing to consider colleges and universities beyond the name-brand 25 – there are hundreds – that offer an excellent education in exciting locations for reasonable fees at less “rejective” admissions rates.
And finally, “alignment” is the term of the moment, and it is a two-way street. Students should try and ensure they have made choices that align with their unique priorities and goals, while understanding that admissions committees have their own priorities that will dictate what otherwise may appear to be mystifying admissions decisions.
The higher ed landscape is a dramatically different place than the one many parents remember, and it’s even changed from five years ago. Another term of the moment is unpredictability, which we can safely predict will continue.
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